District 34 Analyzes Enrollment Projections vs. Actual Enrollment to Determine Accuracy

In a recent report provided to the Glenview District 34 Board of Education, Assistant Superintendent for Business Services Eric Miller indicated that total enrollment for the 2017-2018 school year is 4,805 students across the district. This figure includes all of PreK, ELP, Early Childhood, NSSED and outside or privately placed students. The demographer’s projections for the 2017-2018 school year are within eight students or 0.17 percent of actual enrollment.
 
Given that enrollment is a major driver of expenses, the accuracy of the projections is critical to the district properly planning for the budget.  An example of this was during the years of 2003-2013 when enrollment increased by 25 percent. The projections allowed the district to responsibly plan for the anticipated costs that would result over this 10-year period. 

“It is important to emphasize; however, that we are seeing enrollment at specific schools and at specific grade levels grow at higher rates than anticipated. Because all of our school buildings are best described as ‘at capacity,’ and because class size averages are a concern to all, we must continue to closely monitor our projected enrollment,” said Superintendent Dr. Dane Delli.
 
Miller did note that there were some disparities in the projections when you drill down by grade and by building. More specifically, primary grade enrollment actuals for the current year were higher than projected by three students, and at the intermediate level, were higher than projected by one student. At the middle level, enrollment actuals for the current year were lower than projected by 10 students. While minimal, this increase in enrollment at the primary and intermediate levels is something the administration is carefully monitoring to ensure there is not an adverse impact on class sizes within those grades.

The projections, which were provided to the district by consultant Cooperative Strategies, continue to show an overall decline in enrollment throughout the district and this is expected to continue over the next five years. The methodology used by the consultant considers historical enrollment trends, live birth data, current census data and building permits.
 
Miller said he will continue to work closely with Cooperative Strategies on the enrollment projections and expects to provide updated numbers to the Board in the coming months.